OPINION: Strong Numbers, Uneasy Public – US Economy Heads Into 2026 With Mixed Signals

As the United States approaches 2026, the economic report card is anything but straightforward. On paper, the world’s largest economy looks resilient, even buoyant. However, in lived experience, many Americans feel the opposite.

Economic growth surged in the third quarter, with GDP expanding at an annualised rate of 4.3 percent, the strongest showing in two years and well ahead of other advanced economies. By comparison, the eurozone and the United Kingdom grew at 2.3 percent and 1.3 percent, while Japan contracted by 2.3 percent.

Much of that strength, however, rests on a narrow base. Multibillion-dollar investments in artificial intelligence by companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet are estimated to have accounted for roughly 40 percent of overall growth this year.

That concentration leaves the economy heavily reliant on AI living up to its promise. As Duke University economist Campbell Harvey put it:

“We are at the cusp of technologies like AI being able to very substantially increase productivity. This means higher growth. We have not seen realisations of this higher growth yet from AI.”